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发表于 2007-12-11 03:40:19| 字数 3,531| - 美国
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China Shrinks
By EDUARDO PORTER
Published: December 9, 2007
Few people noticed, but China got smaller the other day. According to new estimates, the colossal Chinese economy that has been making marketers salivate and giving others an inferiority complex may be roughly 40 percent smaller than previously thought: worth $6 trillion rather than $10 trillion. That means it lost a chunk roughly the size of Japan’s output.
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Additional commentary, background information and other items by Times editorial writers.
Go to The Board » What happened was a large statistical glitch. When comparing the size of economies, economists mostly avoid using the standard currency exchange rates seen in bank windows. These fluctuate too much, driven by housing woes, trade deficits or presidential popularity. Economists prefer to use what is known as “purchasing power parity” — or P.P.P. — a rate that adjusts for price differences between countries.
Take a 40 yuan serving of noodles at an eatery in Beijing. If the same dish cost $4 at a comparable restaurant in New York, the noodle P.P.P. would be 10 yuan to the dollar. Calculated using a large basket of goods and services, this ratio allows for a more consistent comparison of economies.
The problem is that the World Bank’s measure of China’s rate, everybody’s benchmark, had been based on a 1980s survey of Chinese prices. This year, the World Bank did its own survey to update the measure. While the bank has not published it yet, Albert Keidel of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace extrapolated the figure from another set of exchange rates published by the Asian Development Bank.
It turns out that things in China are more expensive. It’s as though we discovered that the real price of the noodles in Beijing was 50 yuan, yielding a P.P.P. of 12.5 yuan to the dollar rather than 10. That means the Chinese are relatively poorer and China’s economy is smaller than everybody thought.
This is not a mere technicality. Suddenly the number of Chinese who live below the World Bank’s poverty line of a dollar a day jumped from about 100 million to 300 million, roughly the size of the United States population. And if you thought China’s energy consumption was dismally inefficient, consider that it still uses the same amount of energy to produce 40 percent less stuff. The reassessment does not just involve China. India is also likely to be downsized. And, by the way, global growth has very likely been slower than we thought.
I don’t think China’s leaders have said anything about the recalibration. But they should be pretty pleased. China has been known to enjoy throwing its weight around, but being big also exacts a cost. If a country is that wealthy, others can demand that it start pulling its weight and play more by the international rules. If China is less wealthy, and less a rival, maybe some members of the United States Congress will not press it so hard to revalue its exchange rate. Using the earlier estimate, China’s economy was due to surpass the $13 trillion American economy in about five years. At $6 trillion, it may look somewhat less scary.
EDUARDO PORTER
纽约时报：很少人注意到，但中国前几天缩小了一些
很少人注意到，但中国前几天缩小了一些。根据新的评估，中国令营销商垂涎三尺、令他人自卑的庞大经济可能比之前认为的小大约40%：价值6万亿美元，而不是10万亿美元。这意味着它失去了相当于日本产出大小的一大块。
这是一个大型的统计故障。当比较经济体的规模，经济学家大多避免使用银行橱窗上展示的标准汇率。这些波动太多了，房市的困苦、贸易的赤字或者总统的民望都可以造成波动。经济学家情愿使用所谓的购买力平价（PPP）。
假如在北京餐馆吃面条需要40元人民币。而在美国同类餐厅吃同类东西需要4美元，那么面条的PPP将是10:1。用大量商品和服务的价格来计算，这个比率就更能反映经济体之间的对比。
问题是世界银行对中国比率的衡量（这是每个人的基准）一直基于20世纪80年代的中国价格调查。今年，世界银行进行自己的调查，以作更新。尽管世行还没有公布数据，但卡耐基国际和平基金会的凯德尔（Albert Keidel）从亚洲开发银行公布的另一套汇率推算这个数值。
结果发现中国的东西相当贵。就像我们发现北京面条的真实价格是50元人民币，产生的PPP是12.5:1。这意味着中国人相对更穷，中国的经济比任何人想象中的更小。
这不是一个单纯的技术问题。突然之间，生活在世行贫困线（一天一美元）以下的中国人数量从一亿猛增到三亿，差不多是美国总人口的数字了。而且如果你认为中国的能效已经低得令人沮丧了，那就想想它用同等数量的能源生产减少40%的东西吧。这次重估不仅牵涉到中国。印度也可能缩水。顺便提一下，全球增长可能比我们想象的要慢。
我认为中国领导人不曾说过任何有关此次重新调整的事情。中国很享受它的影响力炫耀，但充大头是要付出代价的。如果一个国家这样富了，其他国家会要求它尽职，更多地遵守国际规则。如果中国没这么富，不那么具有竞争性，可能美国国会的一些议员就不会这么用力地督促它重估汇率了。根据早期的估计，中国经济将在大约五年时间里超过13万亿美元的美国经济。如果它只是6万亿美元的水平，那看起来就没那么恐怖了。（作者 EDUARDO PORTER） |
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真40元一碗面就好了,房子不要了,给银行得了
